European countries increasingly fear that the United States and Russia may agree on terms to end the war in Ukraine without their full participation. At the same time, European governments themselves lack consensus on representation in future talks and on the advisability of direct contacts with the Kremlin.
This is reported by Financial Times on October 30, citing European diplomats and officials.
Concern has grown ahead of the trilateral talks between Ukraine, the United States and Russia scheduled for November in Abu Dhabi. European capitals fear that Washington and Moscow may discuss not only a cessation of hostilities but also broader European security issues, including future restrictions for NATO.
However, Europe has significant leverage over a possible peace agreement. Among them are sanctions against Russia, over €200 billion of frozen Russian assets, and the question of Ukraine's future membership in the European Union.
Yet, according to FT sources, the economic and political influence of European states has not yet secured them a corresponding place in the negotiation process.
One possible option is European representation through the so-called E3 – Great Britain, France and Germany. Four European diplomats told the publication that these are the three countries Ukraine and the United States consider the most likely European participants in future consultations.
According to one of the newspaper's interlocutors, representatives of Washington and Kyiv have already discussed such a format. However, there is no final agreement among European states: smaller EU countries fear that their interests will not be properly represented.
The question of participation of the European Union institutions themselves remains separate. If the talks move to discussing sanctions, frozen Russian assets or future relations between Ukraine and the EU, it will be impossible to make corresponding decisions without the European institutions.
Divisions among European countries emerged after a phone conversation on October 27 between Finnish President Alexander Stubb and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre with Vladimir Putin.
According to the official statement of the Office of the President of Finland, the conversation was held after consultations with Ukraine. Its purpose was to convey to Moscow a position on ending the war and future negotiations in Abu Dhabi. At the same time, both leaders stressed that they represented their own states, not all of Europe.
The initiative drew criticism from Denmark, Lithuania and a number of other European partners. Their representatives believe that individual contacts with Putin without an agreed position may weaken Europe's diplomatic capabilities.
In contrast, Norway and Finland maintain that direct dialogue with Moscow is necessary, since European states must independently communicate their security demands rather than rely solely on American negotiators.
The Kremlin's position remains the opposite. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that participation of European Union representatives in the scheduled trilateral talks is not envisaged. Moscow insists on a format involving only Russia, Ukraine and the United States.
Meanwhile, the European Commission does not consider itself excluded from the broader diplomatic process. At a briefing on October 29, its chief spokesperson Paula Pinho recalled that consultations take place in various formats and at various levels. However, she could not confirm participation of EU representatives in the next round.
According to Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Berlin Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies, Moscow may postpone substantive negotiations until the end of winter. He believes that the Russian leadership hopes to weaken Ukraine's negotiating positions with massive strikes on its infrastructure.
Under such conditions, European states need to agree on a mechanism for participation in advance. Otherwise, FT sources warn, they risk having to react to agreements in the making of which they were not involved.
Currently, the final date of the trilateral meeting in Abu Dhabi is not confirmed. Ukraine is considering holding negotiations in the first half of November, but the composition of delegations and the format of European participation remain open questions.
Based on materials: Financial Times, Office of the President of Finland, European Commission
