The International Monetary Fund presented two scenarios for a gradual revision of gas and electricity tariffs in Ukraine. Experts propose over three years to reduce state support for energy consumption and move to tariffs that cover the cost of energy supply. The approximate period for implementing the reform is 2027-2029.

The relevant calculations are provided in the IMF technical report published on October 30, 2026. The document was prepared following the Fund's expert mission to Kyiv in June at the request of the Ukrainian government.

According to IMF estimates, the total cost of energy subsidies and similar support mechanisms in 2024-2026 averages 3.7% of GDP annually. In particular, support for electricity tariffs accounts for 1.8% of GDP, gas - 1.4%, heat supply - 0.3%, and support for renewable electricity producers - 0.2%.

The main financial burden is borne by energy companies, primarily Naftogaz and Energoatom. The costs of supporting reduced tariffs are mostly not reflected directly in the state budget, but accumulated on the companies' balance sheets, worsening their financial condition.

The report considers two options for the gradual elimination of general subsidies for gas and electricity:

  • Scenario A assumes the preservation of current market conditions and the cost structure of energy companies. Under this model, the target electricity price at the end of the third year will be about 9.7 UAH per kWh, and natural gas - 22 UAH per cubic meter.
  • Scenario B is based on the assumption of a gradual increase in the efficiency of the energy sector, reduction of production costs and stabilization of the market after the war. In this case, the estimated prices will be about 6 UAH per kWh of electricity and 17.2 UAH per cubic meter of gas.

All target prices are quoted inclusive of VAT. However, these are model calculations, not approved tariffs for the population. Actual reform parameters will depend on the state of the energy market, infrastructure restoration costs, and decisions of the Ukrainian authorities.

In both scenarios, experts propose gradually closing the gap between regulated prices and the economically justified cost of energy supply. In the first year, 20% of this gap is to be eliminated, in the second - another 60%, in the third - the remaining 20%. These percentages indicate the reduction in the tariff gap, not the annual rate of tariff increases.

Separately, the IMF recommends restoring economically justified tariffs for district heating. According to expert calculations, the average heating tariff would need to be increased by approximately 75%. Year 2027 is mentioned as a possible start date for such a revision. Implementation will require changes to the current moratorium on tariff increases.

According to the report, in 2025 the average district heating tariff was 1744 UAH per Gcal, with an estimated cost of 3059 UAH. Due to insufficient cost recovery, heat supply companies are accumulating gas debts. As of January 2026, their debt to Naftogaz reached approximately 86 billion UAH.

The IMF emphasizes that tariff revision must be combined with strengthening targeted support for the population. According to expert calculations, the poorest 20% of households receive only 14% of total energy subsidies, while the richest 20% receive about 25%. At the same time, for low-income families, the increase in energy prices will have much more severe consequences, since utility payments account for a larger share of their expenses.

Experts recommend improving current housing subsidy and benefit programs before a large-scale tariff revision. At the same time, they caution that the estimate of the distribution of support among households is based mainly on 2021 survey data and needs to be updated to account for changes caused by the war.

According to the IMF, the full package of proposed changes could provide gross savings in public finances equivalent to 1.5% to 3.2% of GDP by the end of the third year of the reform, depending on the scenario. These figures do not take into account additional costs for expanding social assistance.

The presented scenarios are of a recommendatory nature. The report does not set mandatory dates for tariff increases or final consumer prices.

Based on materials from: International Monetary Fund, technical report of October 30, 2026