Russian strikes on Ukraine's warehouse and logistics infrastructure have become one of the factors accelerating inflation. The destruction of distribution centers forces businesses to reorganize supply chains and increases costs for storing and transporting goods. These consequences are most felt in the prices of food products, household chemicals, electronics, and medicines.
This is stated in the October Inflation Report of the National Bank of Ukraine, published on November 5. The regulator separately studied the economic consequences of intensified Russian attacks on enterprises and logistics facilities in the second half of 2026.
According to the NBU, in July-September alone, Ukraine recorded 153 cases of deliberate damage to warehouse facilities. These figures are based on confirmed cases collected by the Centre for Information Resilience.
According to regulator estimates based on open sources, approximately 800,000 square meters of warehouse space were destroyed in the third quarter. In total, since the start of the full-scale invasion, losses have reached about 2.1 million square meters.
Warehouse infrastructure in Kyiv and the region suffered the greatest damage. According to NBU calculations, about a third of warehouse space in the capital region was destroyed within a few months.
Warehouse destruction affected a significant part of the consumer market
The National Bank estimated that the consequences of attacks on warehouse infrastructure affected approximately 40% of the consumer basket, taking into account the weight of relevant goods in the consumer price index.
According to NBU model calculations, depending on the scale of increased logistics costs and losses of inventory, the additional contribution of shelling to inflation may range from 0.5 to 0.9 percentage points.
The regulator's baseline scenario assumes that the consequences of Russian attacks will add approximately 0.7 percentage points to annual inflation at the end of 2026.
The NBU identifies two main mechanisms of the impact of warehouse destruction on prices.
The first is increased logistics costs. After losing large distribution centers, companies switch to using smaller warehouses, longer routes, and more frequent deliveries of small batches.
According to market estimates cited by the regulator, rents for quality warehouse space have risen by 12-13% over several months.
The second factor is the direct destruction of inventory. This temporarily reduces the supply of certain products, narrows store assortments, and decreases opportunities for promotions and discounts.
However, businesses do not fully pass on additional costs to consumers. They partially absorb the price increases by reducing their own margins, and competition restrains retail price increases.
Products requiring special storage conditions suffered the most
According to NBU calculations, nearly two-thirds of the inflationary effect from the destruction of warehouse logistics falls on food products.
Products requiring constant temperature control proved to be particularly vulnerable: dairy products, fish, ice cream, and frozen semi-finished products.
The reason is that specialized multi-temperature warehouses are the most expensive to maintain and among the most scarce after Russian strikes.
Producers of drinking water and soft drinks also feel significant impact of more expensive logistics. For such goods, transportation costs constitute a relatively large share of the final cost.
The National Bank provided specific examples of accelerated price growth. In particular, annual growth rates of prices for table and mineral water increased from 18.6% in July to 24.2% in September.
Over the same period, the pace of price growth of ice cream accelerated from 10.8% to 13.3%, brined cheeses from 6% to 9.2%, and live and chilled fish from 26.2% to 29.1%.
It is important to note that these indicators reflect changes in annual inflation rates, not direct price increases over two months.
Household chemicals, electronics, and medicines also became noticeably more expensive
Among non-food goods, the effects of disrupted logistics chains were most pronounced in household chemicals, hygiene products, electronics, home goods, and pharmaceutical products.
The NBU notes that damage to one of the largest pharmaceutical warehouses affected the supply of medicines, and the destruction of expensive inventory additionally reinforced pressure on electronics prices.
In particular, annual growth rates of prices for household chemicals accelerated from 6.4% in July to 14.4% in September, for shampoos from 4.6% to 13.4%, and for laptops from 8.1% to 13.6%.
Domestically produced antibiotics accelerated price increases from 7.1% to 10.8% in annual terms over this period, and imported vitamins from 6.5% to 9.8%.
The National Bank notes that such rapid acceleration of price growth for some non-food goods is atypical. Usually their cost significantly depends on the exchange rate, which did not change substantially during the relevant period.
Therefore, the regulator considers inventory losses and disruption of usual supply channels to be a significant explanation for this dynamics.
In Kyiv region, food prices grew faster than the national average
Regional indicators also demonstrate a link between damage to logistics infrastructure and acceleration of consumer price growth.
According to NBU data, in September food products in Kyiv region rose by 3% compared to August. On average in Ukraine, the growth was 1.9% per month.
Moreover, Kyiv region accounted for more than half of confirmed damage to retail warehouses recorded in August-September.
The regulator believes that price acceleration in the region is partly explained by inventory losses and the need to reorganize supplies.
At the same time, the NBU expects that the temporary price jump caused directly by inventory destruction will gradually subside as inventories are replenished.
However, long-term effects of attacks will remain noticeable. The transition of enterprises to a more dispersed warehouse network and more expensive delivery schemes will support elevated production and trade costs even after inventories are replenished.
Earlier "Kurs Ukrainy" reported on NBU's preliminary estimates of possible price increases due to logistics restructuring. The new Inflation Report details these consequences based on actual data for the third quarter and model calculations of their impact on inflation.
