S&P Global Ratings has lowered Poland's credit rating for obligations in the national currency and changed the outlook to negative. The agency warns that rising public debt creates risks for financing costs and economic growth. For Ukrainian companies with Polish partners and Ukrainians working in Poland, the possible consequences for business activity, orders and lending conditions matter.

The decision of November 6 was confirmed by the Ministry of Finance of Poland. The long-term rating for obligations in zloty has been lowered by one notch — from A to A−. The rating for obligations in foreign currency remains at A−. The outlook for both ratings has been changed from stable to negative.

According to S&P's forecast, the general government deficit will remain above 7% of GDP until 2027 inclusive. Net debt of this sector may exceed 70% of GDP by 2029, up from 53% in 2025. The ability to reduce the deficit is complicated by political disagreements and the upcoming parliamentary elections.

As reported by Bankier citing the agency's report, further deterioration of public finances may weaken investor confidence, increase borrowing costs or force the authorities to sharply reduce the deficit. Such a reduction could slow the economy.

For Ukrainian exporters, carriers and service providers, one possible channel of influence is demand from Polish customers. If budget problems lead to a slowdown in the economy, Polish companies may be more cautious about placing orders and investing. For businesses that raise loans in Poland, the possible pass-through of higher financing costs into bank conditions is also important. These are risks, not already recorded consequences of S&P's decision.

Ukrainians living and working in Poland should take into account the prospects for business activity and employment, and when planning major purchases — the actual offers of banks. The sovereign rating downgrade itself does not revise payments on existing loans: they depend on the contract, the type of interest rate and the conditions for its change.

For investors, A− remains investment grade on the rating scale. A negative outlook means a risk of further downgrade, but does not predetermine it.

At the same time, S&P's base forecast assumes continued growth of the Polish economy: in 2027–2029, real GDP is expected to increase by approximately 3% annually on average. The agency maintains a positive assessment of its resilience.

Poland will be able to return the outlook to stable with a sustained reduction in the budget deficit and improvement of the debt trajectory without significant damage to economic growth.

Based on materials from: the Ministry of Finance of Poland, Bankier.